Data is at the heart of the idea. Modern audiences have no recent memory of smallpox. Our understanding of it is based on historical data. The Simulator applies historical data to modern conditions so users can visualize the impact smallpox could possibly have today. Using data visualization, the Simulator shows 1) rapid spread of infections, death, etc, 2) impact on individual countries, 3) potential shortfalls of current mitigations (vaccines, quarantine), and 4) COVID-19’s GDP impact, for context. Data sources included an SEIR model to estimate impact of infectious diseases, a Markov model, census data, and relevant COVID-19 data.

A modern-day, feasible smallpox threat could easily resurface even though smallpox was eradicated. Smallpox’s highly contagious nature and 30% mortality rate make it a tempting tool as a bioweapon; and its primary countermeasure—vaccines—would have limited success containing it due to the short time in which vaccinations can occur. Moreover, government officials across ministries of public health and defense do not currently consider smallpox as important as other, more looming present threats. To counter this, we needed to raise awareness and interest top-tier public health and defense government officials in a uniquely engaging way. With a strong focus on conveying feasibility, impact, and the importance of preparedness, the Smallpox Simulator leverages real-time data tailoring with historic epidemiologic patterns, allowing the user to adjust for population, mitigation techniques, and other variables. The result is a custom demonstration of a potential smallpox impact to countries and population centers all over the world

To convey the threat of a weaponized strain of an eradicated disease, we needed to bring epidemiologic data to life in context. The Smallpox Simulator is a revolutionary tool that leverages epidemiological literature on past smallpox outbreaks, scientific literature on modeling the spread and casualties of infectious diseases, and data visualization technology to animate an outbreak. We modernized a 20-year-old CDC research paper into a contemporary Python data model to predict the deadly impact of release. This required updating the original model with post-COVID-19 pandemic elements—like social distancing. We created a compelling animated visualization of a smallpox outbreak over 120 days across 22 countries using a GeoJSON-driven map interface. The data visualizations illustrate how quickly hospitals are overwhelmed, infections spread, and deaths accumulate. With this tool, government leaders can test their smallpox preparedness, and make informed decisions to keep the world safe.

March 2021 – First project brief was developed

May 2021 – Research began

September 2021 - April 2022 - Creative development

January – March 2022 - Initial code development

April 2022 – Soft launch

April 2022 – Sales team training

August 2022 – Phase 2 launch

- Personalized report launch

- Additional countries added

- Mitigations added to the simulator

- Trailing deaths

- Further code development

September 2022 – Sales team training

April 2022 – Current

- Further code development

- Country additions

- Global sales team presentations of the simulator plus formal presentations to NATO

We recreated a 20-year-old Markov chain model to describe the spread of smallpox through a highly susceptible population. The model was originally built in Excel 97 by CDC authors in 2002 and had no codebase or data sets available. We creatively and credibly translated the methods described in the paper into Python code. We implemented a time-dependent Markov chain with 37 distinct possible states, one for each day of each disease stage. We also assigned each day a distinct probability of moving to Day 1 of the next stage of the disease or staying in the current stage for another day. This model enabled a series of real-time data animations and visualizations that demonstrated to decision makers—viscerally and irrefutably— the potential risks of being underprepared in the event of a biological attack involving smallpox.

The Smallpox Simulator accomplished 3 main objectives: 1) it showed officials what could happen in their home country, 2) it showed that vaccines alone might not be enough to contain the outbreak and 3) drove urgency of our audience’s understanding of the impact of smallpox. This audience consisted of influential decision makers, across 9 countries, responsible for almost 350 million people throughout Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

More than 500 government have been shown the simulator, including at several major world conferences including the NATO CBRN working group. The project is a confidential and highly classified tool with confidential details, but it is having a lasting impact on the safety of the world. Countries now know what vaccines and treatment options they need to stockpile to save the lives of their constituents. They now also know if they need more hospital beds, hospitals and other health care support.